1.4 trillion local bonds issued!Which areas are rich?Can it boost the economy

1.4 trillion local bonds issued!Which areas are rich?Can it boost the economy
Entering 2020, local government bonds are likely to accelerate issuance.According to data from the Ministry of Finance, in the first two months of this year, local government bonds issued in the country were US $ 122.3 billion, an increase of 56% over the same period in 2019.However, since March, the local government bond data has initially balanced with last year.Song Qiuling, a first-level inspector of the Department of Economic Construction of the Ministry of Finance, introduced at the press conference of the Joint Defense and Joint Control Mechanism of the State Council on March 21st that on March 20th, local government bonds issued across the country have reached 1407.9 billion yuan, of which, the averageBonds are 384.6 billion yuan, and special bonds are 1023.3 billion yuan.From January to March 2019, the total number of local government bonds issued nationwide was 1406.7 billion.Song Qiuling said that the new special debt of US $ 1023.3 billion will all be used for infrastructure construction, including the construction of railways, rail transit and other transportation facilities, as well as major infrastructure projects in the fields of ecological and environmental protection, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, municipalities and industrial parks.The issuance of local government bonds is accelerating. Among them, investments are in the field of infrastructure, but what makes the public more concerned is whether these investments can promote the growth of the economy hit by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic.The accelerated issuance of special bonds for local bonds has significantly increased. After the epidemic, the urgency of revitalizing the economy has been increased. Interest rates have continued to rise for March 20th, and new local government bonds have reached US $ 147.9 billion, accounting for 76% of the advance limit.Among them, Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Ningbo, Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Yunnan and other nine provinces and cities have all completed the issuance tasks.In terms of maturity, the average maturity of local government bonds is 16.In 2 years, the duration of the benchmark bond in previous years is more closely matched with the duration of project construction and operation.At the same time, the scale of capital bonds used for major projects in all regions reached 120 billion.”This 120 billion yuan can drive considerable social capital and expand effective investment.Song Qiuling said.In addition to the accelerated issuance, this year’s local government bonds also have an obvious feature, that is, they have increased the issuance of special bonds and reduced the issuance of general bonds, the proportion of which has been adjusted.The data shows that as of March 20, general bonds issued US $ 384.6 billion, special bonds issued US $ 1023.3 billion, and the amount of special bonds issued was about 2 of general bonds.7 times.In the first three months of last year, the country issued 689.5 billion US dollars of general bonds and issued 717.2 billion US dollars of special bonds, which are still relatively balanced.Why is there such a significant change?Wang Jianhui, director of the Capital Securities Research Institute, told the sauna and Yeewang that this year, the economic situation itself is in a weak cycle environment. At the economic work conference at the end of last year, it was required that the economy should grow steadily this year and stabilize employment.When the new coronary pneumonia epidemic occurred, the goal of stable economic growth was determined, and the government would use a more proactive fiscal policy to boost its performance in a weak economic environment.”One of the most important options in a proactive fiscal policy is the issuance of bonds by local governments. Judging from the bond issuance data of local government bonds, there is an obvious difference: the amount of special bonds has increased significantly, while the average bond has declined. ThisThe change trend is directly related to the epidemic. After the outbreak, the urgency of boosting the economy has greatly increased.The government believes that efforts should be concentrated to invest limited resources in specific areas.Wang Jianhui said.Special debt key investment in infrastructure should not be used in real estate and other fields, and special debt will also help the new infrastructure Haitong Securities Research Report data. As of March 19, transportation infrastructure accounts for the largest proportion of special debt, reaching 32.5%, followed by infrastructure construction, accounting for 22.3%, budget, ecological and environmental protection accounted for 8.7%, the park construction accounted for 7.2%, urban and rural construction accounted for 4%, energy and water conservancy accounted for 3%.5%, municipal construction accounted for 2.5%.Wang Jianhui told reporters that under the epidemic situation, the transportation industry is prepared to be disturbed, and this weak alternation needs to be improved.“另外,政府没有比投资基础设施更好的选项了,他们也不希望地方政府把钱投到各个地方,这样的话属于‘撒胡椒面’,难以形成显著的效果,所以,在限定投资领域之Next, I had to invest in infrastructure to promote the role of the economy.”It is worth noting that there are recent media reports that the regulatory authorities have issued a request to clarify that the special debt for restructuring in 2020 should not be used for real estate-related fields such as land reserves and shed reform.At this time, this requirement was also stipulated in the executive meeting of the State Council on September 4, last year. The meeting stated that according to the requirements of local major project construction, the increase in the amount of the special debt portion of the next year should be issued in advance in accordance with the regulations to ensure that it can be used early next year.At the same time, it is stipulated that special debt funds shall not be used in land reserves and real estate-related fields, to replace debts and industrial projects that can be fully commercialized.According to the CITIC Research Report, according to Wind data, the share of special bonds issued to the land bank in 2018-2019 accounted for 58% and 34%, and the share of special bonds invested in shed reform accounted for 31% and 36%.The two together accounted for 89% and 70%.Therefore, the current ban on investment in real estate such as land storage and shed reform is aimed at better driving infrastructure investment.It should be noted that, for the recent major hot new infrastructure investment, it is not common in the investment use of local government bonds.According to the analysis of Guojin Securities Research, from the perspective of the use of special debt funds and the industry distribution of PPP projects, “new infrastructure” accounts for 7% -12% of all infrastructure. It is conservatively estimated that the annual scale exceeds 1 trillion yuan.From the point of view of the funds used for the disclosure of special debts, the science and technology industrial park projects in “rail transportation” and “park construction” belong to the proportion of “new infrastructure”. Overall, the above two projects account for 12% of the total scale.Wang Jianhui believes that traditional infrastructure projects are easier to set up and easier to approve because the projects are already mature.However, the new infrastructure involves more technical issues and needs to be validated when it takes effect.Moreover, under the general emergency situation, the government may not be able to find a suitable project temporarily in terms of what technology to replace and what technical field to use as a starting point for new infrastructure investment.The existing 5G, big data, Internet, cloud computing, Internet of Things and other new infrastructure investments have been arranged in the early stage, and temporary supplements may not help stimulate the economy.But it is foreseeable that if there is a shortage of funds in the investment in new infrastructure, it will be relatively easier to supplement the funds.Can infrastructure investment drive economic growth?The current economy has a boosting effect, but the subsequent impact needs to be resolved. Local government bond issuance is accelerated. Some of these additional debt investments are in the field of infrastructure, but some of the public are more concerned about whether these investments can promote the new coronary pneumonia.The economy hit by the epidemic is growing again.Wang Jianhui believes that, based on past experience, local government bond spending in these traditional areas will undoubtedly boost the demand for construction projects, construction materials, steel, machinery equipment, and construction machinery, which will have a boosting effect on the current economy.But the real question is how to ensure the utilization rate of these infrastructures in the future, and how to ensure that the cost of their input can be ordered and recovered on schedule.”In the past, at least some projects had problems and could not function effectively, or in the case of excessive compensation rates, some repayment problems occurred.”More problems may be reflected in overcapacity. Some sewage treatment plants are built in new communities. However, due to the actual transformation of the community, the sales situation is not good, so it is difficult for the sewage treatment plants to continue to operate.But for now, the government may think more about the stimulus and bottoming effect of the current fiscal policy on the economy, and the subsequent impact will have to be resolved by subsequent methods.Wang Jianhui said.Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Era Securities, believes that domestic demand supplements external demand, and infrastructure investment is the first choice.From the perspective of the three major demands, both external demand and consumption are procyclical, so it is difficult to achieve steady growth through policies that stimulate external demand and consumption.Historically, the most important means of hedging economic growth has been to implement infrastructure and real estate investments that are less difficult to achieve and have quick results.Historically, there have been a combination of “downward growth in export and real estate investment + upward growth in infrastructure investment” both in 2008 and 2012.At present, China needs both a certain economic growth rate and stable employment, but also needs to ensure the quality of economic growth to achieve economic transformation. Infrastructure investment meets these two goals, namely “steady growth of the old infrastructure, which accounts for a relatively high proportion, and promotion of new infrastructure, which accounts for a relatively low proportionEconomic growth and growth “.Sauna, Ye Wang Pan Yichun Editor Li Weijia Proofreading Liu Baoqing

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